"In this study, we have seen that, in contrast to causal models, narrative and overview models of Theories of Change are mainly used by donors and implementing organisations. However, causal models offer a lot more information that would help improve project planning, as well as monitoring and evaluation. That potential is still untapped, although all of the organisations involved in this study have already started to formulate concrete steps that could be parts of causal models. Our recommendation is to work on causal models of Theories of Change as a standard tool in project planning, as it will give clear context-related insights into what can be expected from projects, and what is feasible in the specific environment. In our view, media support would be much more understandable and realistic. Through formulating result chains, many hidden assumptions come to light, and additional elements that need to be tackled before outcomes can be expected will become obvious. It would also be a pre-condition to provide impact evaluations that are lacking in the sector of media support for governance." (Conclusions)
Contents
1 Introduction, 3
2 Research Questions, 3
3 Methodology, 4
4 The Concept(s) of Theory of Change, 4
5 SDC’s media sector model, 6
6 Results, 8
Typology of programmes with relation to media and governance, 8
Typology of programmes with regard to layers, 9
Use of different models of Theories of Change, 12
Are there specific associations within governance and media programmes? 18
Are there specific differences between donors and implementing organisations? 19
Evidence on media effects from academic research, 20
Should we have one Theory of Change for media support with governance objectives or many Theories of Change? 29
7 Result chains – what they could look like, 31
8 Conclusions and Recommendations, 36